Delusion

From the comments to the last post:

things aren't getting brighter? With one of the best young QB's in the league, a defense that will improve with draft picks and smart signings, improving depth along the o-line...

Smart signings and draft picks?

When has Shanahan ever shown him capable of making smart defensive signings and draft picks?

How can anybody claim we have improving depth on the offensive line? Our offensive line is only getting older.

Some analysis of the Broncos' offense

While browsing Football Outsiders, I came across their 2007 Drive Statistics.

Here's how the Broncos stack up:

Yards Per Drive: 31.69 (9th best)
Points Per Drive: 1.73 (17th best)
Touchdowns Per Drive: .180 (18th best)
Punts Per Drive: .337 (5th best)

Now let's figure out what these statistics tell us.





Yards Per Drive compared to Points Per Drive and Touchdowns Per Drive

Of the teams in the top 10 in YPD the Broncos have by far the largest difference in their YPD to PPD ranking. Only two other teams in the top 10 in YPD are not in the top 10 in PPD. However, two teams are ranked 11th and 12th, a far cry from Denver's 17th.

The rest of the teams in the top 10 in YPD also have TDPD rankings similar to their YPD rankings. Again, the Broncos exhibit a discrepancy that the rest of the top 10 do not.

Relevance of Punts Per Drive:

If the Broncos were not scoring points, you would expect the offense to be punting the ball quite regularly. Yet that is clearly not the case, the Broncos punted the ball less than the vast majority of the NFL.

The thought might cross your mind now that the Broncos must have been turning the ball over frequently as an explanation for this. But, the Broncos turned the ball over at a decidedly average rate (15th) compared to the rest of the NFL.

What's this mean?

All of this lends to the conclusion that the Broncos were kicking too many field goals and not converting their chances into touchdowns.

That is a recurring theme for Shanahan's Post-Elway Broncos, in 2004 the team was 28th in Red Zone efficiency. The 2006 team was 12th, and the 2005 team despite having the second best record in the NFL was seventh in Red Zone Efficiency. Despite the fact that the Broncos were in the AFC Championship game in 2005, it should be no surprise that they finished behind both Super Bowl representatives in Red Zone Efficiency.

I would be willing to bet that once 2007's Red Zone Efficiency ratings are released, the Broncos will be amongst the NFL's worst.


The consistent problem is the play calling once the Broncos get into striking distance of the end-zone. It is consistently terrible, and Shanahan, as the person calling the plays, is to blame.

Rearranging the deck chairs

Jim Bates has joined Greg Robinson, Ray Rhodes, and Larry Coyer in the pantheon of Shanahan's failed defensive coordinator choices.

To be fair to Coyer, he wasn't really a failure. He just happened to be the necessary sacrifice to the altar of the cult of personality around Shanahan.

The faces surrounding Mike Shanahan continue to change, the results continue to stay the same.

Does anybody truly think a new defensive coordinator is going to make any difference?

Time For Change (mail)

This is another email, I thought it deserved a separate post of its own (although I don't agree with the Marty part). I'm still asking for emails. I'll print whatever I get. Fireshanahan@gmail.com -Jacob

Zach writes:

Shanahan has done nothing but pass the buck after Elway's retirement. There was nothing wrong with Jake Plummer. He was alright in Arizona, but he really came to form in Denver. But Shanahan casts doubt upon all quarterbacks who are not named "John Elway." He refuses to let his quarterbacks wind up and fling it down the field. Instead, they run a highly predictable dink-and-dump style offense. I don't know how they're 5-7. Well, I do know why they're 5-7 instead of 2-10, Jason Elam. He has bailed them out time after time this season.

Their defense has never been great. It wasn't great when they won back-to-back Super Bowls, but it was good enough to win. They managed to keep, for the most part, the same personnel when they were winning back-to-back Super Bowls. Now Shanahan will release players at the drop of a hat. What kind of mentality is that? "Well, this defense just didn't work out. Let's go out and get a new one for next season. If that doesn't work I'll just do the same thing again, until it works." Does he keep receipts for these guys? It's like his returning faulty products before the warranty is up.

Then there is the habitual hiring/firing of coaching staff. Let's not blame the head coach for the total ineptitude of HIS team. No, let's blame all the people that work for him.

Here's my ultimate dream: The Broncos, after going 7-9, fire Shanahan and hire Marty Schottenheimer. Marty will then lead the Broncos to a Super Bowl victory, thus breaking his jinx with the team that started it. I've always admired Marty and I think he's the answer. That man has taken so much undeserved critical abuse while Shanahan receives nothing but praises. Marty didn't deserve to be fired by the (vastly overrated) San Diego Chargers. They should have fired their insane General Manager. The Chargers are dead when they get into the playoffs.

That's a different issue though.

The Broncos are not going to be successful as long as Shanahan is there. He's just going to keep doing the same things hoping to get the same results, which is one of the definitions of insanity.

I'm in for the long haul, but it's getting tougher to hang in there. The only thing that keeps me going is the hope that he will get fired in the foreseeable future.

Mail bag

Here's some of the mail I've received about the Mastermind so far. I'll post every email I get, so long as it isn't vulgar, etc (maybe I will even then). Send mail to Fireshanahan@gmail.com

I'm going to save one message I got to print as a post of its own tomorrow as I feel it summarizes the entire situation very well and will save me the trouble of having to reiterate things I've posted here for three years.

Steve writes:

When Coach Bill McCartney of the Colorado Buffaloes stupidly decided to punt to Rocket Ismail in the 1/1/91 Orange Bowl, he almost cost his team a national championship. Luckily, there was a clipping penalty on the play and the Buffs won and shared the championship. When Shanahan stupidly decided to kick and punt to Devin Hester, it basically cost his team the playoffs, and if there is a God, it cost him his job. Somehow, that night Todd Sauerbraun was Keith Olberman's "Worst Person in the NFL"!?! Shanahan probably called Keith and blamed every kick on Todd, and Keith slurped it up because the media is required to love Shanahan, who should've been fired THAT NIGHT.

Against the Raiders, after settling for field goals as usual (is it even called "settling" with him anymore? he seems to enjoy anticipating Elam's trot onto the field every time the Broncos get to the 40-yard-line) the Broncos cut the score to 24-19 in the 4th quarter. We know how much Shanahan loves FGs, but either he doesn't know the "new" NFL rules, or he just loves watching Elam kick, so instead of attempting to cut the lead to 3, the Broncos kicked the extra point. If the score had been like that in the final seconds, I still think they would've kicked the FG in the last minute to lose 24-23, that's how much Shanahan likes FGs and how stupid he is.

The Broncos have been shooting so many threes this year that even Antwan Walker is embarrassed.

Brian writes:

I've been a Broncos fan since I moved to Colorado at the age of six. I've seen them play over a dozen times, both at Mile High and Invesco. I was at the famous Elway vs Montana game, and have always counted myself quite loyal. Don't live in Colorado anymore, but still watch or listen to every game. I've no come to the conclusion that it's time for Shanahan to go. The one statistic that stands out for me the most is this; it's been almost 10 years since Elway played for the Broncos and we've won a grand total of one playoff game. ONE! For such a storied franchise, this is completely unacceptable. Plus, every other playoff game we've gotten absolutely smoked. Thanks for doing your part to get people talking!

Not only have the Broncos been smoked in the playoffs, they've been thoroughly out coached in almost every game.

"Milehijedi" writes:

I am so with it now.

I once felt and even mailed you my thoughts of how ridiculous I thought it was to fire Shanahan. But this is getting disgusting.

Bowlen has that irish connection with Shanahan I think. idk wtf direction this team is going.

Cutler's development MUST rest in Shanahan's shoulders, as I am sure he will not resign (though I wish he would). idk how much time to give him, but I am sick of watching this team go backwards.

Cutler appears to be on the right track, but that will not save Shanahan from throwing him under the bus if it is at all helpful to save his reputation.

Let's hear from you.

Shoot me a line with your feelings on Shanahan, good, bad, whatever.

Fireshanahan@gmail.com

I'll post them. I'm too busy to point out how right I am at the moment.

It's always the defensive coordinator's fault

Last season the Broncos defense began the season in a dominant fashion, preventing teams from reaching the end zone. They finished the season 8th in points allowed, with 305 and 14th in yards per game.

The offense on the other hand was 17th in points scored and 21st in yards per game.

Mike Shanahan is in near total control of the offense for this football team. In fact, the Broncos did not even have an offensive coordinator in 2006. He passed blame onto Jake Plummer halfway through the season and switched to Jay Cutler with the stated justification that Cutler gave the team the best chance to win. That didn't occur, and the team had the same offensive short coming.

In response to the team missing the playoffs, the organization decided to take the following steps in regards to the coaching staff:

1) Fire defensive coordinator Larry Coyer
2) Fire defensive line coach Andre Patterson
3) Extend Mike Shanahan's contract three years.

Once again reality was ignored and another defensive coordinator took the blame for Shanahan's inability to manage games.

How do the Broncos stack up this year in the aforementioned categories?

Defense:
28th in points allowed (227)
26th in yards per game.

Offense:
28th in points scored (126) -100 DIFFERENTIAL
10th in yards per game

The difference in the offensive rankings of points scored to yards gained is a simple one to explain. The Broncos have terrible special teams and horrible red zone play calling.

The response to last year's offensive problems was to fire the defensive coaching staff. As a result, the Broncos have their worst defense in recent memory.

Six million dollar drops

Mike Shanahan gave Daniel Graham a five year, $30 million contract this off season, with $15 million in guaranteed money. This was one year after spending a second round pick on Tony Scheffler.

I will always have a soft spot for Graham, but I really cannot handle watching him drop the ball on every key play where his number is called. Even if he was making catches, he would still be vastly overpaid.

There is no excuse for tying up that much cap space in a tight end that does not contribute to your passing game.

Cassandratic Equation

On October 7th 2007 Mike Shanahan coached the Broncos to the worst home defeat in over forty years. 41-3 to a San Diego Chargers team that was falling apart less than a week before. Ladanian Tomlinson was sobbing at press conferences, and San Diego fans were clamoring for Martyball. And Mike Shanahan led the team to a 41-3 defeat.

The Broncos are two plays and an upright from being 0-5. The inability to score in the red zone that has been a hallmark of the Shanahan led Broncos over the past four seasons has never been more apparent than it is right now.

Jay Cutler is not yet capable of running the offense Shanahan wants him to run, and yet Shanahan has shown no willingness to simplify the offense whatsoever to allow Cutler to succeed.

The Denver defense is an absolute joke, it's in complete shambles despite using multiple draft picks on defensive line help and signing several more free agents. Larry Coyer was made the second scapegoat of 2006 after assassinating Jake Plummer's career did not magically transport the Broncos to football fantasy land. Jim Bates has now fashioned a laughing stock of a defense.

And the most frustrating part of watching Broncos fans stumble around in complete shock over all of this, is that I've been pointing all of this out on this site for three years.

The fact that this team constantly plays down to the level of its opponents and frequently just no-shows entire games is blindingly apparent this season, as it should have been over the last four. That more than anything else is the sign of a poorly coached team.

This fan base has spent so much time attacking and scapegoating the team's quarterbacks and defensive coordinators yet failed to see that Emperor Shanahan is standing in front of them naked.

Which is why it's so hilarious to see the sudden realizations being had on Broncos sites across the net today.

It's time for a coaching change, it's been a decade since Shanahan won his fifteen get out of jail free cards on the back of Elway, Davis, and the best team by far in the NFL.

The MASTERMIND'S MASTER PLAN

Step 1: Blow all three timeouts halfway through the third quarter

Step 2: Run a QB sneak on fourth and two (even though Marcus Stroud has been lining up over Nalen all day) instead of taking the three points.

Step 3: Go for it on fourth down backed up against your own endzone with four and a half minutes left.

Step 4: ??????????

Step 5: PROFIT


Even if you want to claim Shanahan was forced to go for it on that fourth down, he was only forced to go for it because he's an idiot and wasted all his timeouts and didn't kick the field goal earlier.