1/24/2008

Some analysis of the Broncos' offense

While browsing Football Outsiders, I came across their 2007 Drive Statistics.

Here's how the Broncos stack up:

Yards Per Drive: 31.69 (9th best)
Points Per Drive: 1.73 (17th best)
Touchdowns Per Drive: .180 (18th best)
Punts Per Drive: .337 (5th best)

Now let's figure out what these statistics tell us.





Yards Per Drive compared to Points Per Drive and Touchdowns Per Drive


Of the teams in the top 10 in YPD the Broncos have by far the largest difference in their YPD to PPD ranking. Only two other teams in the top 10 in YPD are not in the top 10 in PPD. However, two teams are ranked 11th and 12th, a far cry from Denver's 17th.

The rest of the teams in the top 10 in YPD also have TDPD rankings similar to their YPD rankings. Again, the Broncos exhibit a discrepancy that the rest of the top 10 do not.

Relevance of Punts Per Drive:

If the Broncos were not scoring points, you would expect the offense to be punting the ball quite regularly. Yet that is clearly not the case, the Broncos punted the ball less than the vast majority of the NFL.

The thought might cross your mind now that the Broncos must have been turning the ball over frequently as an explanation for this. But, the Broncos turned the ball over at a decidedly average rate (15th) compared to the rest of the NFL.

What's this mean?

All of this lends to the conclusion that the Broncos were kicking too many field goals and not converting their chances into touchdowns.

That is a recurring theme for Shanahan's Post-Elway Broncos, in 2004 the team was 28th in Red Zone efficiency. The 2006 team was 12th, and the 2005 team despite having the second best record in the NFL was seventh in Red Zone Efficiency. Despite the fact that the Broncos were in the AFC Championship game in 2005, it should be no surprise that they finished behind both Super Bowl representatives in Red Zone Efficiency.

I would be willing to bet that once 2007's Red Zone Efficiency ratings are released, the Broncos will be amongst the NFL's worst.


The consistent problem is the play calling once the Broncos get into striking distance of the end-zone. It is consistently terrible, and Shanahan, as the person calling the plays, is to blame.

4 comments:

Zach said...

Nice picture. I'd say that sums up my feelings about the Broncos. Shanahan is like a weather man; he can mess up all day, every day, and keep his job. Not only that, he always gets an extension.

Look, I said all I needed to say over a month ago in that message you posted. But it's still fun to say it again.

The only problem with the Broncos is Mike Shanahan. I think a sock puppet could do a better coaching job than him at this point. I told my dad Brian Billick would be a Godsend at this point.

Statistics are for losers! They always have a high ranked defense, but that's horribly misleading. When do they give up all their points? Late in the game! They give up points at the most crucial time in the game.

Do they return interceptions for touchdowns? Nope. Do they return fumbles for touchdowns? Negative. Do they run punts/kickoffs back? Not very often.

How often does Champ Bailey get burned? A lot. They need to put a leash on Champ because he tries to cheat and pick off the pass, but he gets burned. Don't get me wrong, I love Champ. He's one of the best in the league, but he definitely has his weaknesses.

I love the Broncos, but the future isn't getting any brighter.

Send Shanahan packing. It's time for a fresh perspective!

Thanks for keeping up the fight against inShananity.

Zach

Sam said...

Yeah. Brilliant. Let's bring in Billick.

Please, Zach. Go fist yourself.

The only problem(s) with the Broncos are youth, inexperience, injuries, depth, and finally, coaching.

Coaching is on the list, but it's not as big as some of the others. 68 man-games lost to injury, and we finished ONE GAME BELOW .500. I know that as Broncos fans we don't like to wait, and we're like spoiled little kids since we've had TWO losing seasons in the past THIRTEEN years, but come ON.

Zach, things aren't getting brighter? With one of the best young QB's in the league, a defense that will improve with draft picks and smart signings, improving depth along the o-line...

We are not mired in the junk here.

Shannys Achilles said...

Shanahan has always had a rep for red zone problems.

No matter how his worshipers / apologists try to say other wise.

Anonymous said...

There seems to be a trend here. All Shanny haters want him to go but NOT ONE has suggested a replacement. Just name one so we can all rip on your selection. Or, don't name any if you're afraid of the same criticism that you're dishing out.